Gradski stadion · Analysis updated 10:17 UTC
Litex vs Mogren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Litex and 1.00 for Mogren, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Litex the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Litex win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Litex home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mogren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Litex to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Litex and 1.00 for Mogren, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Litex
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus Malchika · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademik Svishtov · 0-3 (L)
Mogren
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grbalj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Litex win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.