Steponas Darius and Stasys Girenas Stadium · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
Lithuania vs Andorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lithuania and 0.61 for Andorra, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Lithuania the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lithuania win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lithuania home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Andorra away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lithuania to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Lithuania and 0.61 for Andorra, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 2–013.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.50 (model 65.2% vs market 62.0%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.50 | 62.0% | 65.2% | 1.53 | +3.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 42.6% | 2.35 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.8% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 5.80 | 15.5% | 15.7% | 6.37 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.3% | 57.4% | 1.74 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.2% | 26.9% | 3.72 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.2% | 84.3% | 1.19 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.45 | 38.0% | 34.8% | 2.87 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lithuania
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Azerbaijan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andorra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Azerbaijan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Liechtenstein · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia · 0-1 (L)
Andorra
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · Lithuania 3-0 Andorra (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lithuania win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.