· Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Litija vs Svoboda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Litija and 1.51 for Svoboda, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Litija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Litija home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Svoboda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Litija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Litija and 1.51 for Svoboda, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Litija
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Svoboda · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Šencur · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dob · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vipava · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Adria · 3-0 (W)
Svoboda
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Litija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Žiri · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Škofja Loka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tolmin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šencur · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bravo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Dob | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Tolmin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Brežice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Rače | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Celje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Odranci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Šencur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Radomlje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Tabor Sežana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Nafta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Triglav | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Bilje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Krško | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Marjeta na Dravskem polj | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Koper | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Litija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Podvinci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Aluminij | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | NK Ormoz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Korotan Prevalje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Videm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Turnišče | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Grad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Čarda Martjanci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Tromejnik Montpreis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Velesovo Cerklje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.