The Sportsfield · Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Littlehampton Town vs Hartley Wintney Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Littlehampton Town and 1.83 for Hartley Wintney, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Hartley Wintney the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hartley Wintney win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Littlehampton Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hartley Wintney away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hartley Wintney to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Littlehampton Town and 1.83 for Hartley Wintney, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–28.7%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Littlehampton Town
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Raynes Park Vale · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horndean · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hayes & Yeading United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartley Wintney · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moneyfields · 0-4 (L)
Hartley Wintney
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hayes & Yeading United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Harrow Borough · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Littlehampton Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascot United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitan Police · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Div One - Isthmian South Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leatherhead | 42 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 96 |
| 2 | Westfield (Surrey) | 42 | 26 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 84 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 42 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 48 | 81 |
| 4 | Moneyfields | 42 | 25 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 80 |
| 5 | AFC Portchester | 42 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 73 |
| 6 | Southall | 42 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 65 |
| 7 | Egham Town | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 64 |
| 8 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 64 |
| 9 | Hayes & Yeading United | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | -16 | 61 |
| 10 | South Park | 42 | 17 | 8 | 17 | -1 | 59 |
| 11 | Bognor Regis Town | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 57 |
| 12 | Hartley Wintney | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 56 |
| 13 | Kingstonian | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | -7 | 56 |
| 14 | Raynes Park Vale | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 53 |
| 15 | Bedfont Sports | 42 | 13 | 11 | 18 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Ascot United | 42 | 15 | 4 | 23 | -4 | 49 |
| 17 | Hendon | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | -12 | 48 |
| 18 | Binfield | 42 | 14 | 6 | 22 | -13 | 48 |
| 19 | Littlehampton Town | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | -23 | 46 |
| 20 | Metropolitan Police | 42 | 12 | 8 | 22 | -25 | 44 |
| 21 | Horndean | 42 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -64 | 31 |
| 22 | Fareham Town | 42 | 6 | 7 | 29 | -46 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hartley Wintney win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.