Liverpool Academy · Referee D. Watson · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Liverpool U21 vs Brighton U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Liverpool U21 and 1.27 for Brighton U21, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Liverpool U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Liverpool U21 win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool U21 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brighton U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Liverpool U21 and 1.27 for Brighton U21, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Liverpool U21
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Doncaster · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton U21 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham United U21 · 0-1 (L)
Brighton U21
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Derby County U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham United U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Wolves U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | Birmingham City U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 29 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 30 | Leicester City U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liverpool U21 win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.