Anfield · Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.34 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 51.8% vs market 43.4%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.4% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +8.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.2% | 27.3% | 3.66 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 43.0% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.8% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 70.3% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.10 | 29.8% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 73.0% | 72.7% | 1.38 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 56.6% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
Arsenal
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-08T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2025-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-04T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2024-01-07T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Arsenal (FA Cup)
- 2023-12-23T17:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2023-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 2022-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.