Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.56 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win38%

Draw24%

Arsenal win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%
1–06.8%
0–16.8%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-16T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)

Arsenal

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-01-08T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
2025-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
2025-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-02-04T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-01-07T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Arsenal (FA Cup)
2023-12-23T17:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
2023-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2022-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Arsenal (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.