Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.28 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

73.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win27%

Draw29%

Arsenal win45%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.1%
1–113.1%
0–011.1%
1–010.2%
0–29.0%

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)

Arsenal

2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-01-08T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
2025-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-0 Arsenal (Premier League)
2025-05-11T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-02-04T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-3 Arsenal (Premier League)
2024-01-07T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Arsenal (FA Cup)
2023-12-23T17:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
2023-04-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
2022-10-09T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Arsenal (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.