Anfield · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.23 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Liverpool win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brighton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–17.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 43.2% vs market 39.2%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 39.2% | 43.2% | 2.31 | +4.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 28.7% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.8% | 71.0% | 1.41 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.6% | 24.5% | 4.08 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.7% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.8% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 60.8% | 56.8% | 1.76 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Brighton
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T12:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2026-02-14T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 3-0 Brighton (FA Cup)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2025-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2024-10-30T19:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 3-2 Brighton (League Cup)
- 2024-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2023-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Brighton (Premier League)
- 2023-01-29T13:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Brighton (FA Cup)
- 2023-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-3 Brighton (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liverpool win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.