Anfield · Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.33 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 74.0% | 75.5% | 1.32 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 41.7% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 41.1% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 32.3% | 32.4% | 3.09 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.6% | 67.7% | 1.48 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 58.2% | 1.72 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 24.6% | 4.07 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.4% | 57.0% | 1.75 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.62 | 35.5% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Chelsea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T11:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2025-05-04T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-3 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-10-20T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2024-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-0 Chelsea (League Cup)
- 2024-01-31T20:15:00.000Z · Liverpool 4-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-08-13T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-04-04T19:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2023-01-21T12:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 2022-05-14T15:45:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.