Anfield · Referee Chris Kavanagh · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.30 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Manchester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manchester City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 48.1% vs market 36.5%, edge +11.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 48.1% | 2.08 | +11.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.6% | 73.3% | 1.36 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 37.4% | 37.8% | 2.65 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 3.75 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.4% | 62.2% | 1.61 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.9% | 35.5% | 2.82 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.0% | 64.5% | 1.55 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -11.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Manchester City
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T11:45:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-4 Manchester City (FA Cup)
- 2026-02-08T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2025-11-09T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2025-02-23T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2024-12-01T16:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-0 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2024-03-10T15:45:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2023-11-25T12:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2023-04-01T11:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-4 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 2022-12-22T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Manchester City (League Cup)
- 2022-10-16T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-0 Manchester City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.