Anfield · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Liverpool vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.10 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Liverpool and 1.10 for Manchester United, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Manchester United
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Fulham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sabah FA · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T14:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-3 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2025-01-05T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 3-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-08-03T23:45:00.000Z · Liverpool 3-0 Manchester United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-07T14:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2024-03-17T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 3-4 Manchester United (FA Cup)
- 2023-12-17T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2023-03-05T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 7-0 Manchester United (Premier League)
- 2022-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.