Anfield · Referee A. Madley · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.10 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Liverpool win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liverpool home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 2-1 (W)
Tottenham
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nottingham Forest · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-12-20T17:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-04-27T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 5-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2025-02-06T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 4-0 Tottenham (League Cup)
- 2025-01-08T20:00:00.000Z · Liverpool 0-1 Tottenham (League Cup)
- 2024-12-22T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 6-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2024-05-05T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 4-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 1-2 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2023-04-30T15:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 4-3 Tottenham (Premier League)
- 2022-11-06T16:30:00.000Z · Liverpool 2-1 Tottenham (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Liverpool win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.