Liverpool W vs Manchester United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Liverpool W and 3.50 for Manchester United W, a combined total of 5.82. That distribution gives Manchester United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Manchester United W win

60.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.31 – 3.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Manchester United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manchester United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 24% / 15% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Liverpool W and 3.50 for Manchester United W, a combined 5.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 92% and both teams to score at 87%, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool W win24%

Draw15%

Manchester United W win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals92%

Over 3.5 goals82%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–35.7%
2–45.0%
1–34.9%
2–24.9%
3–34.4%

Recent form

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool W · 5-3 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton Athletic W · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

WSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United W	2	2	0	0	13	6
2	Aston Villa W	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Crystal Palace W	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Liverpool W	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	London City Lionesses W	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	West Ham W	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Tottenham Hotspur W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Brighton W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Everton W	1	1	0	0	2	3
10	Burnley W	1	1	0	0	1	3
11	Sunderland W	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolverhampton W	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	Bristol City W	1	0	1	0	0	1
14	Ipswich Town W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Watford W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Leicester City FC W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Southampton W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nottingham Forest W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Sheffield United W	2	0	1	1	-9	1
20	Birmingham City W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Newcastle United W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Durham W	2	0	0	2	-5	0
23	Charlton Athletic W	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Manchester United W win, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.