The Home of the Set Fare Arena · Referee R. Hardie · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Livingston vs Arbroath Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Livingston and 0.80 for Arbroath, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Livingston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Livingston win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Livingston home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arbroath away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Livingston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Livingston and 0.80 for Arbroath, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Livingston
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Inverness CT · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
Arbroath
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunfermline · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Livingston 0-1 Arbroath (Championship)
- 2021-07-05T00:00:00.000Z · Livingston 4-0 Arbroath (Friendlies Clubs)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Livingston | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Livingston win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.