The Home of the Set Fare Arena · Referee C. Scott · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
Livingston vs Partick Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Livingston and 1.02 for Partick, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Partick the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.5% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Livingston home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Partick away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.3%
- 0–018.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Livingston
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 2-0 (W)
Partick
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T18:30:00.000Z · Livingston 0-2 Partick (Championship)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · Livingston 1-1 Partick (League Cup)
- 2025-05-16T18:45:00.000Z · Livingston 2-0 Partick (Premiership)
- 2025-05-13T18:45:00.000Z · Livingston 2-0 Partick (Premiership)
- 2025-05-02T18:45:00.000Z · Livingston 0-1 Partick (Championship)
- 2025-02-28T19:45:00.000Z · Livingston 1-1 Partick (Championship)
- 2024-12-13T19:45:00.000Z · Livingston 2-0 Partick (Championship)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Livingston 0-0 Partick (Championship)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Livingston 3-2 Partick (FA Cup)
- 2017-07-15T14:00:00.000Z · Livingston 1-1 Partick (League Cup)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.