Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.12 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Ljungskile SK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ljungskile SK win

51.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ljungskile SK home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Varnamo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ljungskile SK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.12 for IFK Varnamo, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ljungskile SK win52%

Draw24%

IFK Varnamo win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–010.0%
2–19.7%
2–08.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Ljungskile SK

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs IK brage · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkenbergs FF · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Norrby IF · 2-1 (W)

IFK Varnamo

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Superettan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	27	18	5	4	36	59
2	Falkenbergs FF	27	15	6	6	15	51
3	Ostersunds FK	28	12	12	4	12	48
4	Varbergs BoIS FC	27	13	7	7	11	46
5	Landskrona BoIS	27	12	7	8	13	43
6	Oddevold	28	11	9	8	11	42
7	Osters IF	28	13	3	12	1	42
8	United Nordic	28	10	9	9	-6	39
9	Sandviken	28	10	8	10	6	38
10	Ljungskile SK	27	8	8	11	-1	32
11	IFK Varnamo	28	9	5	14	-13	32
12	Helsingborg	27	8	7	12	-11	31
13	Norrby IF	27	5	12	10	-6	27
14	IK brage	28	6	8	14	-10	26
15	Orebro SK	27	5	11	11	-12	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	28	6	1	21	-46	19

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ljungskile SK win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.