· Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Ljutomer vs Videm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ljutomer and 1.47 for Videm, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Ljutomer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ljutomer home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Videm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ljutomer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Ljutomer and 1.47 for Videm, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Ljutomer
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Šampion Celje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Odranci · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dobrovce · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Videm · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrovce · 3-3 (D)
Videm
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Šampion Celje · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Čarda Martjanci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hajdina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Odranci · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rače · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. SNL - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odranci | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Fužinar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Ormoz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Šmartno | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Hajdina | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Čarda Martjanci | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Videm | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Podvinci | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Rače | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Korotan Prevalje | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Dobrovce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 9 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Limbuš Pekre | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Šampion Celje | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.