Llanera vs Racing Santander II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Llanera and 1.14 for Racing Santander II, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Llanera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Llanera win

59.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.12 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Llanera home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Racing Santander II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llanera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Llanera and 1.14 for Racing Santander II, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Llanera win60%

Draw21%

Racing Santander II win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.3%
2–08.7%
1–08.2%
3–17.0%

Recent form

Llanera

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-2 (L)

Racing Santander II

2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar II · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanera · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Amorebieta · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Llanera win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.