Estadio Bello Horizonte · Referee Ferney Ossa Orozco, Colombia · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Llaneros vs Millonarios Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Llaneros and 1.00 for Millonarios, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Llaneros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Llaneros home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Millonarios away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llaneros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Llaneros and 1.00 for Millonarios, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
Llaneros
- 2026-09-26T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Nacional · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Internacional de Bogota · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 1-1 (D)
Millonarios
- 2026-10-03T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T01:05:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Medellin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chico · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -10 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.