· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Llanes vs Sporting Gijón II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Llanes and 1.64 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Sporting Gijón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Gijón II win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Llanes home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Gijón II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Gijón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Llanes and 1.64 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Llanes
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Langreo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Andes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Condal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lealtad · 1-1 (D)
Sporting Gijón II
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Siero · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colunga · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Caudal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Gijón II win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.