· Analysis updated 00:59 UTC
Llanuwchllyn vs Penrhyncoch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Llanuwchllyn and 1.08 for Penrhyncoch, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Llanuwchllyn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Llanuwchllyn win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Llanuwchllyn home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Penrhyncoch away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llanuwchllyn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 14% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Llanuwchllyn and 1.08 for Penrhyncoch, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–16.0%
Recent form
Llanuwchllyn
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newtown AFC · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Penrhyncoch · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Guilsfield · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Caersws · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mold Alexandra · 2-2 (D)
Penrhyncoch
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanuwchllyn · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gresford Athletic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ruthin Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bala Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bangor City 1876 FC · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 30 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Llanuwchllyn win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.