· Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
Llapi vs Ballkani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Llapi and 1.62 for Ballkani, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Ballkani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ballkani win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Llapi home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ballkani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballkani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 23% / 25% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Llapi and 1.62 for Ballkani, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.4%
Recent form
Llapi
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-4 (L)
Ballkani
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Malisheva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Feronikeli · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ballkani win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.