· Analysis updated 16:02 UTC
Llapi vs Gjilani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Llapi and 2.16 for Gjilani, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Gjilani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gjilani win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Llapi home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gjilani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gjilani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 22% / 20% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Llapi and 2.16 for Gjilani, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–27.7%
- 0–17.2%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Llapi
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-4 (L)
Gjilani
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Malisheva | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| 3 | Dukagjini | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Drita | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Gjilani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 9 | Llapi | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gjilani win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.