Lleida Esportiu vs Vilassar Mar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Lleida Esportiu and 1.08 for Vilassar Mar, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Vilassar Mar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

74.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lleida Esportiu home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vilassar Mar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vilassar Mar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 26% / 32% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Lleida Esportiu and 1.08 for Vilassar Mar, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lleida Esportiu win26%

Draw32%

Vilassar Mar win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–116.9%
0–015.7%
1–113.1%
1–012.2%
0–29.1%

Recent form

Lleida Esportiu

2026-05-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Vilanova · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs L'Escala · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilassar Mar · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mollerussa · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 0-0 (D)

Vilassar Mar

2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Europa II · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-27T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Grama · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Badalona · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan Atletico de Montcada · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Pobla Mafumet · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Montañesa	6	4	0	2	5	12
2	Grama	6	3	1	2	7	10
3	Badalona	6	3	1	2	6	10
4	L'Hospitalet	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Pobla Mafumet	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Vilanova	5	2	3	0	2	9
7	Martinenc	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Europa II	6	2	2	2	3	8
9	Atlètic Lleida	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Peralada	6	1	4	1	2	7
11	Cornellà	6	1	4	1	1	7
12	L'Escala	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Mollerussa	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	San Cristóbal	6	2	1	3	-8	7
15	Cerdanyola del Vallès	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Tona	6	2	0	4	-4	6
17	San Juan Atletico de Montcada	5	2	0	3	-5	6
18	Vilassar Mar	6	1	1	4	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.