LNZ Cherkasy vs Chornomorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.69 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives LNZ Cherkasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

LNZ Cherkasy win

53.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

LNZ Cherkasy home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chornomorets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 28% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.69 for Chornomorets, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

LNZ Cherkasy win53%

Draw28%

Chornomorets win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.3%
0–012.6%
1–112.0%
2–012.0%
0–18.7%

Recent form

LNZ Cherkasy

2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-0 (D)

Chornomorets

2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	8	0	1	15	24
2	Polessya	9	7	1	1	12	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	6	0	2	10	18
4	Dynamo Kyiv	8	5	1	2	3	16
5	Karpaty	9	4	3	2	9	15
6	LNZ Cherkasy	9	4	2	3	1	14
7	Zorya Luhansk	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Epitsentr Dunayivtsi	9	2	3	4	-3	9
9	Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	-5	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Bukovyna	9	1	5	3	-5	8
12	Livyi Bereh	8	1	4	3	-2	7
13	Obolon'-Brovar	8	1	4	3	-8	7
14	Chornomorets	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Kudrivka	9	1	2	6	-11	5
16	Kryvbas KR	7	1	2	4	-6	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is LNZ Cherkasy win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.