Cherkasy Arena · Referee Dmytro Kubriak, Ukraine · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.55 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives LNZ Cherkasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
LNZ Cherkasy win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LNZ Cherkasy home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Obolon'-Brovar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.5%
- 2–014.4%
- 0–013.1%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
LNZ Cherkasy
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-0 (D)
Obolon'-Brovar
- 2026-09-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2026-05-24T10:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2025-12-06T11:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2025-05-10T12:30:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2024-11-09T11:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2024-07-20T14:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 Obolon'-Brovar (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-07-09T13:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Obolon'-Brovar (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-04T12:30:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2023-10-29T11:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar (Premier League)
- 2022-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar (Persha Liga)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is LNZ Cherkasy win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.