Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse · Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Lobos Upnfm vs Génesis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Lobos Upnfm and 1.13 for Génesis, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Génesis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.9% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lobos Upnfm home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Génesis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.3%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–29.2%
Recent form
Lobos Upnfm
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Juticalpa · 0-1 (L)
Génesis
- 2026-08-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-23T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 0-1 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-03-02T21:30:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 2-0 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-09-27T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 3-2 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-07-23T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 2-1 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-03-12T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 1-1 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-01-25T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 0-4 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-10-20T23:15:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 1-4 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 0-3 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-04-28T21:30:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 0-1 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-03-05T00:00:00.000Z · Lobos Upnfm 0-0 Génesis (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.