Locarno vs Baden Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Locarno and 1.68 for Baden, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Baden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Baden win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Locarno home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Baden away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 21% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Locarno and 1.68 for Baden, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Locarno win21%

Draw24%

Baden win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

0–112.4%
1–111.5%
0–210.4%
1–29.6%
0–07.4%

Recent form

Locarno

2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosova · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thalwil · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Baden · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 0-0 (D)

Baden

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taverne · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Locarno · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dietikon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggen · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	St. Gallen II	10	7	1	2	5	22
2	Tuggen	10	6	3	1	11	21
3	Taverne	10	6	2	2	13	20
4	Thalwil	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	Baden	10	5	1	4	4	16
6	Kosova	10	4	4	2	3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	4	3	3	-1	15
8	Dietikon	10	4	2	4	0	14
9	Gossau	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Locarno	10	2	4	4	-1	10
11	Freienbach	10	2	4	4	-4	10
12	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	2	3	5	-3	9
13	Winterthur II	9	3	0	6	-4	9
14	Eschen / Mauren	9	2	3	4	-7	9
15	Mendrisio	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Widnau	10	1	3	6	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Baden win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.