· Analysis updated 19:22 UTC
Lokeren-Temse vs Dender Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.37 for Dender, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Lokeren-Temse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokeren-Temse win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokeren-Temse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dender away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokeren-Temse to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.37 for Dender, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Lokeren-Temse
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Houtvenne · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Virton · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Francs Borains · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs KRC Genk II · 2-4 (L)
Dender
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · Lokeren-Temse 3-0 Dender (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-08-04T00:00:00.000Z · Lokeren-Temse 2-2 Dender (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokeren-Temse win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.