Lokomotiv Moskva U19 vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 and 1.72 for Akademiya Konoplev U20, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Moskva U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win

52.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Akademiya Konoplev U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Moskva U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 20% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Lokomotiv Moskva U19 and 1.72 for Akademiya Konoplev U20, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win52%

Draw20%

Akademiya Konoplev U20 win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–18.1%
2–27.0%
1–16.9%
3–16.4%
1–25.9%

Recent form

Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Akademiya Konoplev U20

2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Makhachkala U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva U19 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakel U19 · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural U20 · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Youth Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	20	2	4	49	62
2	Zenit U19	25	17	3	5	38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	17	2	6	33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	16	3	6	32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	15	5	6	22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	13	5	7	12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	12	5	8	-2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	7	10	8	-4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	9	4	12	-7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	9	2	14	-8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	8	3	14	-23	27
12	Ural U20	26	7	4	15	-23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	6	5	15	-26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	6	4	15	-34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	4	4	17	-25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	4	3	18	-34	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Moskva U19 win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.