Sapsan Arena · Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Chertanovo W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Lokomotiv Moskva W and 0.72 for Chertanovo W, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws roughly 28% of the time.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Moskva W to Win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.3%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Lokomotiv Moskva W and 0.72 for Chertanovo W, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Lokomotiv Moskva W to Win is the headline pick at 72% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Chertanovo W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 38 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 37 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 34 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 27 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov W | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | Chertanovo W | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 20 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan W | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Dinamo Moskva W | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 19 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Ryazan W | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -18 | 9 |
| 12 | Rostov W | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 8 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | -31 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.