Sapsan Arena · Analysis updated 11:22 UTC
Lokomotiv Moskva W vs Zvezda Perm W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Lokomotiv Moskva W and 0.33 for Zvezda Perm W, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Moskva W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Moskva W win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotiv Moskva W home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zvezda Perm W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Moskva W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 18% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Lokomotiv Moskva W and 0.33 for Zvezda Perm W, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 2–019.5%
- 3–012.7%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–16.5%
Recent form
Lokomotiv Moskva W
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvezda Perm W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 1-0 (W)
Zvezda Perm W
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Moskva W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moskva W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moskva W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Supreme Division Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit W | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 53 |
| 2 | CSKA Moskva W | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 49 |
| 3 | Spartak Moskva W | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 43 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Moskva W | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 40 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov W | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 32 |
| 6 | Dinamo Moskva W | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| 7 | Chertanovo W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan W | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | -4 | 23 |
| 9 | Zvezda Perm W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -21 | 17 |
| 10 | Krasnodar W | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 11 | Rostov W | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -38 | 13 |
| 12 | Ryazan W | 20 | 1 | 6 | 13 | -30 | 9 |
| 13 | Yenisey W | 19 | 0 | 3 | 16 | -37 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Moskva W win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.