· Analysis updated 06:54 UTC
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Levski Karlovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II and 1.36 for Levski Karlovo, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Levski Karlovo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Plovdiv II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II and 1.36 for Levski Karlovo, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Milevo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftochimic Burgas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sekirovo Rakovski · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Plovdiv II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletik Kuklen · 2-0 (W)
Levski Karlovo
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Krumovgrad | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 36 |
| 2 | Maritsa Milevo | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | Spartak Plovdiv | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 27 |
| 4 | Neftochimic Burgas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Sayana Haskovo | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Yambol 1915 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Rodopa Smolyan | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Gigant Saedinenie | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Sozopol | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Rozova dolina | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Dimitrovgrad | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Zagorets | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 13 | Botev Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Maritsa Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -21 | 8 |
| 16 | Atletik Kuklen | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 | Sekirovo Rakovski | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
| 18 | Levski Karlovo | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.