Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.46 for Ludogorets, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Ludogorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Ludogorets win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.64 – 1.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ludogorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 16% / 27% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.46 for Ludogorets, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win16%

Draw27%

Ludogorets win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–117.9%
0–213.1%
0–012.2%
1–111.4%
1–28.4%

Recent form

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Botev Plovdiv · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 1-0 (W)

Ludogorets

2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	17	25
2	CSKA Sofia	10	7	3	0	17	24
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	9	23
4	CSKA 1948	10	7	1	2	9	22
5	Arda Kardzhali	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Slavia Sofia	10	2	5	3	1	11
8	Spartak Varna	10	2	4	4	-5	10
9	Botev Vratsa	10	2	3	5	-10	9
10	Septemvri Sofia	10	2	2	6	-10	8
11	Lokomotiv Sofia	10	1	4	5	-7	7
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	10	2	1	7	-8	7
13	Cherno More Varna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
14	Dunav Ruse	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ludogorets win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.