Lokomotiv vs Nasaf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.25 for Nasaf, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Lokomotiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lokomotiv home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nasaf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Lokomotiv and 1.25 for Nasaf, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotiv win38%

Draw27%

Nasaf win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–010.1%
0–19.7%
2–18.3%
1–27.9%

Recent form

Lokomotiv

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogdiana · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mash'al · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 1-1 (D)

Nasaf

2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Andijan · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bunyodkor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 6-2 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Navbahor · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	24	17	4	3	35	55
2	Pakhtakor	24	15	8	1	21	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Buxoro	24	12	4	8	5	40
5	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
6	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
7	Nasaf	24	10	8	6	13	38
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	24	8	5	11	-6	29
12	Surkhon	24	7	7	10	-9	28
13	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
14	Bunyodkor	24	7	2	15	-16	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	24	1	1	22	-37	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.