Lokomotiv vs Neftchi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.65 for Neftchi, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Neftchi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Neftchi win

45.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lokomotiv home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Neftchi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotiv win30%

Draw24%

Neftchi win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–29.3%
0–18.6%
2–17.3%
0–27.1%

Recent form

Lokomotiv

2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasaf · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogdiana · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bunyodkor · 1-0 (W)

Neftchi

2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-20T11:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-3 Neftchi (Super League)
2024-11-30T10:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 2-3 Neftchi (Super League)
2024-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-1 Neftchi (Super League)
2022-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-3 Neftchi (Super League)
2022-05-05T13:30:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-0 Neftchi (Super League)
2018-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-1 Neftchi (Super League)
2018-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 4-1 Neftchi (Super League)
2017-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 0-0 Neftchi (Super League)
2017-05-27T14:00:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 4-0 Neftchi (Super League)
2016-08-14T13:30:00.000Z · Lokomotiv 1-1 Neftchi (Super League)

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Neftchi	25	18	4	3	37	58
2	Pakhtakor	25	15	8	2	19	53
3	Navbahor	24	13	7	4	18	46
4	Nasaf	25	11	8	6	14	41
5	Buxoro	25	12	5	8	5	41
6	Olmaliq	24	11	6	7	3	39
7	Lokomotiv	24	11	6	7	9	39
8	Qizilqum	24	10	3	11	-6	33
9	Andijan	24	9	3	12	-3	30
10	Dinamo Samarqand	24	8	6	10	-3	30
11	Sogdiana	25	8	5	12	-7	29
12	Surkhon	25	7	8	10	-9	29
13	Bunyodkor	25	8	2	15	-15	26
14	Kokand-1912	24	5	8	11	-10	23
15	Xorazm	24	5	8	11	-14	23
16	Mash'al	25	1	1	23	-38	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Neftchi win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.