· Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Lokomotíva Košice vs Spišská Nová Ves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lokomotíva Košice and 0.66 for Spišská Nová Ves, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Lokomotíva Košice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lokomotíva Košice win
59.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotíva Košice home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spišská Nová Ves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotíva Košice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Lokomotíva Košice and 0.66 for Spišská Nová Ves, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 2–013.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Lokomotíva Košice
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slávia TU Košice · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vranov nad Topľou · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
Spišská Nová Ves
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lipany · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbrezová · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizán Bardejov · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotíva Košice win, at 59.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.