· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Považská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Lokomotíva Zvolen and 1.17 for Považská Bystrica, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Považská Bystrica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotíva Zvolen home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Považská Bystrica away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 53.3% vs market 39.9%, edge +13.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.9% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +13.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.0% | 63.2% | 1.58 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 36.6% | 36.8% | 2.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.3% | 28.4% | 3.52 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.6% | 1.40 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 35.1% | 34.8% | 2.87 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.4% | 65.2% | 1.53 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -13.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lokomotíva Zvolen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šamorín · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Malženice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Zlaté Moravce · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 1-2 (L)
Považská Bystrica
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Zvolen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Košice · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galanta · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MFK Bytča · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · Lokomotíva Zvolen 2-1 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · Lokomotíva Zvolen 2-0 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2025-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · Lokomotíva Zvolen 0-1 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2025-03-18T14:15:00.000Z · Lokomotíva Zvolen 0-1 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
- 2024-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Lokomotíva Zvolen 1-3 Považská Bystrica (2. liga)
2. liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 32 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Galanta | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| 7 | Tatran Prešov | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 11 | Slovan Bratislava II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 | Malženice | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Humenné | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | -22 | 9 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.