· Analysis updated 10:36 UTC
Lokomotive Leipzig vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lokomotive Leipzig and 0.89 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Lokomotive Leipzig the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotive Leipzig win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotive Leipzig home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.3% vs market 43.0%, edge +9.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +9.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.0% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 24.4% | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.4% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 20.4% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -9.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lokomotive Leipzig
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 3-3 (D)
BSG Chemie Leipzig
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 2-2 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 0-1 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2025-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 2-0 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2025-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 3-0 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-10-06T12:05:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 2-0 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 0-2 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2023-11-26T11:30:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 1-1 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2023-04-02T14:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 0-0 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2022-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 3-0 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2022-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · Lokomotive Leipzig 1-2 BSG Chemie Leipzig (Regionalliga - Nordost)
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotive Leipzig win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.