Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Margveti 2006 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.35 for Margveti 2006, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Lokomotivi Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win

50.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Margveti 2006 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotivi Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.35 for Margveti 2006, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win51%

Draw22%

Margveti 2006 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.5%
1–07.3%
2–07.0%
1–26.6%

Recent form

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 4-0 (W)

Margveti 2006

2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Guria · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-0 Margveti 2006 (Liga 3)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	22	16	3	3	52	51
2	Varketili	22	14	7	1	40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	11	8	3	18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Gonio	22	11	5	6	10	38
6	WIT Georgia	22	10	5	7	10	35
7	Irao	22	10	4	8	11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	9	7	6	6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	9	5	8	4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	9	3	10	-5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	7	7	8	-1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	6	3	13	-17	21
13	Gardabani	22	4	4	14	-35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	1	10	11	-24	13
15	Betlemi	22	3	4	15	-41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	2	5	15	-38	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lokomotivi Tbilisi win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.