Mikheil Meskhi Stadium · Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.75 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Merani Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Merani Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Didube 2014 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)
Merani Tbilisi
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 0-1 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2023-12-01T08:30:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5-0 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-09-22T11:30:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2-0 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5-2 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2023-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2-3 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2021-04-21T10:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5-2 Merani Tbilisi (David Kipiani Cup)
- 2020-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 4-0 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2020-06-26T17:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-1 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2012-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 0-2 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2012-04-23T12:00:00.000Z · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1-2 Merani Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.