Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Varketili Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.75 for Varketili, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Varketili win

60.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varketili away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varketili to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 16% / 23% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi and 1.75 for Varketili, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win16%

Draw23%

Varketili win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–114.0%
0–212.2%
1–110.9%
1–29.5%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Didube 2014 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)

Varketili

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	25	17	5	3	56	56
2	Varketili	25	16	8	1	44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	12	10	3	22	46
4	Gonio	25	13	5	7	10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	12	7	6	7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	11	5	9	9	38
7	Irao	25	10	6	9	10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	10	6	9	3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	9	8	8	3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	9	7	9	3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	10	4	11	-8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	7	5	13	-15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	3	11	11	-14	20
14	Gardabani	25	4	4	17	-42	16
15	Betlemi	25	4	4	17	-51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	3	5	17	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.