· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Lommel United vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lommel United and 2.75 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives ADO Den Haag the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ADO Den Haag win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lommel United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADO Den Haag away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ADO Den Haag to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 24% / 18% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Lommel United and 2.75 for ADO Den Haag, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.2%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Lommel United
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs KV Mechelen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KVC Westerlo · 4-0 (W)
ADO Den Haag
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T12:00:00.000Z · Lommel United 0-4 ADO Den Haag (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ADO Den Haag win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.