Lommiswil vs Muri-Gümligen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lommiswil and 1.51 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Muri-Gümligen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lommiswil home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muri-Gümligen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muri-Gümligen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Lommiswil and 1.51 for Muri-Gümligen, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lommiswil win37%

Draw24%

Muri-Gümligen win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.7%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Lommiswil

2025-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina Bern · 1-4 (L)
2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pratteln · 4-1 (W)
2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyss · 1-0 (W)
2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bosporus · 1-1 (D)
2025-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajoie-Monterri · 1-1 (D)

Muri-Gümligen

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Langenthal · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buochs · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Wohlen · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zug · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga Interregional - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Old Boys	30	21	3	6	47	66
2	Bosporus	30	18	5	7	32	59
3	Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy II	30	18	4	8	30	58
4	Düdingen	30	15	8	7	12	53
5	Bosna Neuchâtel	30	15	6	9	17	51
6	Dornach	30	15	5	10	15	50
7	Ajoie-Monterri	30	11	7	12	-4	40
8	Pratteln	30	11	5	14	-9	38
9	Ueberstorf	30	9	10	11	-12	37
10	Allschwil	30	10	7	13	-15	37
11	Muri-Gümligen	30	9	8	13	-8	35
12	Lyss	30	9	5	16	-18	32
13	Binningen	30	8	8	14	-17	32
14	Lerchenfeld	30	8	7	15	-24	31
15	Lommiswil	30	7	10	13	-18	31
16	Tavannes / Tramelan	30	6	2	22	-28	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.