· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Long An vs Binh Duong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Long An and 1.41 for Binh Duong, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Binh Duong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Long An home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Binh Duong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Long An
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dong Thap · 2-2 (D)
Binh Duong
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T10:15:00.000Z · Long An 0-2 Binh Duong (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-13T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-3 Binh Duong (Cup)
- 2023-05-10T09:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-4 Binh Duong (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2017-11-19T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 0-4 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2017-01-13T10:30:00.000Z · Long An 1-1 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2016-08-28T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 2-3 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2016-03-06T09:30:00.000Z · Long An 1-1 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2015-08-09T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-3 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2015-02-08T09:30:00.000Z · Long An 3-1 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
- 2014-08-03T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-3 Binh Duong (V.League 1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.