· Analysis updated 18:13 UTC
Long An vs Dong Thap Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Long An and 1.58 for Dong Thap, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Dong Thap the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dong Thap win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Long An home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dong Thap away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dong Thap to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 17% / 25% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Long An and 1.58 for Dong Thap, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Long An
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dong Thap · 2-2 (D)
Dong Thap
- 2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bóng đá Huế · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-19T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ho Chi Minh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Văn Hiến · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dong Thap win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.