· Analysis updated 08:08 UTC
Long An vs Than Quang Ninh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Long An and 0.92 for Than Quang Ninh, a combined total of 1.91. That distribution gives Long An the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Long An home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Than Quang Ninh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–014.8%
- 1–014.7%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.3%
Recent form
Long An
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Dong Thap · 2-2 (D)
Than Quang Ninh
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hai Phong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồ Chí Minh II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs PVF-CAND · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T09:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-0 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 2)
- 2025-11-02T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-1 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 2)
- 2017-07-02T11:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-2 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2017-04-09T10:30:00.000Z · Long An 1-2 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2016-07-24T11:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-2 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2016-06-25T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-2 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2015-08-28T10:00:00.000Z · Long An 1-3 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2015-04-19T09:30:00.000Z · Long An 0-1 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
- 2014-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · Long An 2-1 Than Quang Ninh (V.League 1)
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Dong Thap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Than Quang Ninh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pho Hien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Văn Hiến | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Lam Dong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Long An | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Binh Dinh | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Bóng đá Huế | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.