· Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Long Eaton United vs Redditch United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Long Eaton United and 1.26 for Redditch United, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Long Eaton United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Long Eaton United home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Redditch United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Long Eaton United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Long Eaton United and 1.26 for Redditch United, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Long Eaton United
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redditch United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basford United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry Sphinx · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mickleover Sports · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belper Town · 1-2 (L)
Redditch United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · Long Eaton United 2-2 Redditch United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Long Eaton United 0-2 Redditch United (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2023-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · Long Eaton United 0-2 Redditch United (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.