· Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
LONGA '30 vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for LONGA '30 and 2.17 for Koninklijke HFC, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Koninklijke HFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Koninklijke HFC win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Koninklijke HFC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Koninklijke HFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for LONGA '30 and 2.17 for Koninklijke HFC, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–27.2%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
LONGA '30
- 2023-06-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 0-6 (L)
- 2020-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 0-8 (L)
Koninklijke HFC
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozakken Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dovo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Koninklijke HFC win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.