Longford Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.55 for Bray Wanderers, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Longford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Longford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bray Wanderers away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Longford Town win42%

Draw23%

Bray Wanderers win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–18.7%
1–27.8%
2–26.8%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Longford Town

2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wexford · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 1-0 (W)

Bray Wanderers

2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cobh Ramblers · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Treaty United · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kerry · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T18:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 4-2 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2026-06-19T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 2-5 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2026-04-11T18:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-0 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2026-02-13T19:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-1 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2025-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 2-0 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2025-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-2 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2025-04-18T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-4 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2025-02-15T19:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-1 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2024-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-0 Bray Wanderers (First Division)
2024-07-04T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-0 Bray Wanderers (First Division)

First Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	36	23	6	7	39	75
2	UCD	36	16	8	12	16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	15	9	12	14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	14	10	12	4	52
5	Longford Town	36	14	10	12	3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	14	7	15	-8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	13	9	14	-1	48
8	Wexford	36	11	9	16	-14	42
9	Treaty United	36	11	9	16	-16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	7	7	22	-37	28

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.