Bishopsgate · Analysis updated 19:09 UTC
Longford Town vs Finn Harps Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Longford Town and 0.83 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Longford Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Longford Town win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Longford Town home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Finn Harps away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Longford Town
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wexford · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 1-0 (W)
Finn Harps
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cobh Ramblers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bray Wanderers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Longford Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-0 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · Longford Town 5-0 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2026-05-22T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 2-2 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2026-03-28T19:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-1 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2025-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2025-07-04T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-0 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2025-05-17T18:30:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-0 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2025-04-04T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2024-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 0-1 Finn Harps (First Division)
- 2024-06-28T18:45:00.000Z · Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps (First Division)
First Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 75 |
| 2 | UCD | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 56 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 54 |
| 4 | Kerry FC | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 52 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 52 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -14 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | -16 | 42 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 36 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -37 | 28 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Longford Town win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.